Strategic Inspiration and Technology Roadmapping

Innovation is a hot topic, but alarming statistics surround its practice. As many as nine out of ten projects founder. There is no denying that innovation is challenging, however, such failure rates are amplified to these truly outrageous proportions in organisations that default to the “innovation by chance” mode.

Innovation-by-chance allows random influences to impact on an organisation’s innovation processes, to occasionally and randomly result in an innovation outcome. When such “influences” occur they elicit innovation responses of variable quality and organisations usually don’t know how to deal with them. Under such circumstances it is truly an inevitable surprise when innovation performance turns out to be worse than patchy.

We can do significantly better than this lacklustre norm by deliberately managing innovation stimuli and the contexts in which they are applied. In our problem solving and future seeking activities the concept of strategic inspiration can help maximise the potential for success.

Developing a structured imagination about the future helps organisations to outflank the limitations set by the thinking that attends constant improvement and incremental advances. Strategic inspiration can provide a catalyst for breakthrough innovation. A fresh stimulus can provide the impetus to think in imaginative and unusual ways required to crystallise the beginnings of new combinations and breakthrough innovation concepts.

Ecouraging strategic inspiration requires a process that includes the opportunity for rich conversations between people with information about at least three things:

  • changes impacting current and future markets
  • information about future capabilities (or technologies) and gaps in those capabilities
  • information about future markets

A roadmapping process is one way of structuring the conversations and documenting the distilled insights to highlight the most important innovation stimuli for the future of your organisation.



What Makes a Good Technology Roadmap?

What does success look like in the technology roadmapping space?

A well crafted technology roadmap that supports its readers in forming decisions about their innovation priorities for the present and future ought to contain at least five dimensions of information:

  • change
  • markets
  • needs, gaps and stretch objectives
  • capabilities
  • metrics

To enable the reader to appreciate the context for innovation addressed by the technology roadmap the document needs to be more than a mere projection of improvement on the present. We have addressed this elsewhere by describing the role of scenarios in thinking coherently about the uncertainties presented by the future. What is required is a rich description of a probable future or futures because then the reader can appreciate the drivers for innovation that will emerge as a result.

As well as the drivers for innovation pushed by big shifts (present, expected, unexpected) there will be changes in the shape and character of demand driven by these in the (present and future) markets covered by the roadmap. The ability to use appropriate means of engaging with customers or end users as an input to the innovation process is a major topic in and of itself. Interpreting the way customers define value in an innovative offering is not as simple as just asking them and the jobs-to-be-done approach appears to offer the best construct for defining this right now.

As well as defining incremental improvements in the current technological standard in response to known customer performance requirements what sets an “innovation roadmap” (in some quarters these may be referred to as a “strategic roadmap” to differentiate it from its stepwise-advancement-from-the-present-day counterpart) apart from a run of the mill incremental “technology roadmap” is its ability to describe existing, emerging and as well as this, totally new needs. The initial challenge is to describe these in a sufficiently textured way to have the reader understand the new requirements and what is known and unknown about these at present.

Once the roadmap has articulated scenarios, changes in the shape of market demand and the new needs driven by these shifts, then it is in a sound position to define the the existing and new capabilities required to deliver against  the defined objectives. The best roadmaps use evidence-based approaches to define relevant technology development trajectories and the people that are most active and influential in shaping their development. We have written about this in more detail elsewhere. Mining bibliometric data out of patent, journal and conference  information helps to identify the groups and individuals that are truly world class and what paradigms they have identified for creating future capabilities.

Those roadmaps that set themselves apart from the run of the mill go further – by supplying metrics that quantify the projected advancements in performance requirements. The scale of performance improvement required is a key signal to the reader on whether or not incremental improvements in the present technological paradigm is likely to deliver the performance requirement or whether a different approach is required.

Roadmaps that don’t contain this flow of logic simply “don’t cut the mustard” in terms of quality and are amplifying risk for those that rely on them. We can and must do better in preparing for significant innovation.



What Will Be Will Be

In a recent post Jeffrey Phillips captured nicely why it is essential for innovation efforts to be directed by the future, not the present.

He said:

What many firms do is solve obvious problems that exist today that may, or may not, exist in the future.  These firms are constantly disappointed to find that by the time their ideas are commercialized as products or services the products are either late to the game or don’t provide any unique value.  That’s because no matter how good you are at solving an existing problem, your product or service development cycle takes time to get that solution to market, and the idea competes with all of the other pressing objectives.  Your team needs to innovate in the context of the relevant future, which is dictated by how quickly you can bring a product to market, and what the relevant conditions will be in that time frame.  You must plan for change, and understand how trends will change your market and the expectations of your customers.  Then, you can create interesting, valuable ideas that are unique in that context, rather than produce ideas that are late to market or simply aren’t unique.

Innovate with the future that “will be” in mind, rather than solving today’s problems tomorrow.

If you’d like to read the rest of Jeffrey’s post please follow the link: Innovating for the future that will be



Sample Scenario

Click Image to Download .pdf 5.4MB

Earlier we offered the view that scenarios are an extremely important tool for achieving a strong outcome from technology roadmapping.

To assist you to consider the merits of this assertion further we have included for your consideration a recent scenario document as a .pdf download.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development is a great sample document that provides a really effective introduction to scenarios. An added bonus is that it has been prepared by one of the leading exponents of scenario development, Peter Swartz.

Swartz offers the following thoughts on the role of scenarios:

Scenario planning is a powerful tool precisely because the future is unpredictable and shaped by many interacting variables. Scenarios enable us to think creatively and rigorously about the different ways these forces may interact, while forcing us to challenge our own assumptions about what we believe or hope the future will be. Scenarios embrace and weave together multiple perspectives and provide an ongoing framework for spotting and making sense of important changes as they emerge. Perhaps most importantly, scenarios give us a new, shared language that deepens our conversations about the future and how we can help to shape it.

To rework an old adage:  Technology roadmapping without a scenario is like driving a car by looking in the rear view mirror – you miss all the bends.



Case Study: Using Prior Art Roadmaps

Proportion of Waste Heat versus Total Industry Energy Use

A recent client engagement illustrated the value of analysing existing technology road maps as a means of focussing business development efforts.

For context, Dr Malcolm Jacques is an Executive Director of Wasabi Energy. One of Wasabi’s subsidiaries Global Geothermal Limited owns technology that enables heat to be translated into electricity.  The Kalina Cycle offers advancements over the Rankine Cycle for generating electricity from relatively low temperature sources of heat such as renewable energy (geothermal, solar thermal) and waste heat  (power stations, steel furnaces, cement kilns etc). The Kalina Energy Cycle uses a working fluid consisting of a variable concentration ammonia-water mixture that behaves in a thermodynamically superior manner at lower temperatures.

The initial questions that we helped Malcolm to answer with respect to generating electricity from sources of heat were as follows:

  • is this a solution to a known problem?
  • which industry sectors recognise the problem as a priority?
  • in what applications is the proposed solution likely to be most useful?
  • is the solution a priority in all geographies?

Roadmaps happen to be a great resource when considering these issues. Armed with answers to these questions business development efforts can be targeted to markets where demand pull, and hence market traction, is likely to be strongest.

Of course in any situation like this it’s feasible to simply use logic to simply list all those industry sectors that use or generate lots of heat energy and to work through this list systematically. In this instance Malcolm was interested in pinpointing his efforts by concentrating on potential markets where a solution was already recognised as a priority.

Technology roadmaps are a particularly useful guide in developing answers for these and other important questions at the front end of innovation or in market development because you are receiving the distilled thoughts of a population of industry experts not just an off the cuff remark from a snatched conversation.

A key word search of our technology roadmap library immediately identified several documents that were useful.

  • First, roadmaps are available from Europe, Japan and the US that deal with waste heat recovery as an energy efficiency measure.

Analysis of these roadmaps identified not just the industries that use a great deal of heat energy but also those where onsite energy losses were a significant proportion of energy used. A cross industry technology matrix tabulated six out of sixteen major industry sectors that ranked waste heat recovery improvements amongst their top priorities for investment.

  • Second, we reviewed technology roadmaps derived from each of the nominated six target industries (plus geothermal and solar thermal and biomass renewable energy roadmaps) for Australia, Japan, the European Union, Canada, Korea, and the US over several timeframes.

The result was a rich picture containing significant useful data. This helped us identify the industry segments and applications where heat recovery opportunities were largest and most interesting to Wasabi Energy.

Quickly targeting business development efforts, based on the considered opinions of acknowledged industry experts in several jurisdictions, has helped focus market development efforts and deliver immediate traction – something that might have come with significant additional effort in the absence of the analysis of the thirty eight relevant roadmaps our search uncovered.

Surprisingly, according to their roadmaps, two of the top six energy losing industries do not regard waste heat recovery as amongst their top priorities. Understanding this fact helped Malcolm to avoid wasting resources targeting those industries.



Open Innovation Source:Pharmalicensing

Innovaro Pharmalicensing is a global resource for partnering, licensing, and business development in the life science and biopharmaceutical industries. Its services are designed to contribute to business development across the deal-making process – from finding partners to closing the deal.

With over twelve years experience, Pharmalicensing provides a rich set of connections across the life science between companies, research laboratories and universities.

Pharmalicensing offers business intelligence reports,  partnering search, licensing in, licensing out, company profiling, through to full consultancy including deal negotiation services.

Innovaro Pharmalicensing website may be accessed here.



The New Know: Business Analytics

The New Know is a book by Thornton May published in 2009 about business analytics. Now there are many books published about business analytics, but most of these focus on the ideas, methods or technologies behind analytics.

This one caught my attention because it is specifically about using analytics to support innovation.

May contrasts the old know, which he describes as “unaugmented human cognition” and the “mysterious arts of decision making”, with the New Know which he describes as the ability to collect, organise, analyse and act on the exponentially increasing mass of information …..

May states “In the not so distant future, guessing/making things up, not having the right data, or employing the the wrong algorithms to data will come to be viewed as termination offenses …”

In the context of this blog we view the New Know as being a lot about how we assemble insights about markets, customer requirements, and new capabilities. Using data mining to explore journal, patent and conference data for instance can open new views of what is possible and how stretch objectives in innovation might be achieved. Importantly it also helps identify the who part of the question. Who is pushing the boundaries in this knowledge space – for instance?

Synthesising the information, opening it to opinion and debate and then presenting it effectively so that informed insights become plain to many is where technology roadmapping fits into the picture.

Many organisations remain simply happy to guess.

May observes that the desire to know will define the next quarter century.  The New Know focusses on what can be known, what must be known and most important, what actions can be taken because you do know.

May’s thesis is that innovation is subject to probabilities and chance. As such, innovation performancecan be materially improved by the enlightened use of business analytics. He goes on to state: “To innovate without the assistance of business analytics is madness.”

We agree.

Future articles on this channel will explore this point and deal with how to make effective use of analytics to effectively enhance your innovation investment decision making.

Clear indicators exist that May’s insights are appreciated by some of the more agile thinkers. Evidence to this effect can be viewed here.

More information on Thornton May.



Open Innovation Defined

Open innovation may be defined in the following terms…

Open innovation is the pursuit of an innovation result without regard for the source of the innovation components required to achieve it.

Innovation components may be thought of as items of intellectual property brought together to create the “whole solution” from the user perspective.

Appropriately, this definition is very similar to the most useful definition of the term ‘entrepreneurship’ where entrepreneurship is the pursuit of opportunity without regard for the resources currently controlled.

If you are interested in finding some innovation components to support your technology development efforts some links to sources of technology available for licensing or acquisition are available via this link.



Open Innovation Source: European Technology Market

The EU Technology Market offers 12 thousand technology offers and over 3 thousand technology requests.

Information is divided into sectors to facilitate easy searching.

API’s are provided to allow you to serve relevant technology profiles to your own website, if desired.



Open Innovation Source Canada: Flintbox

Originally created in 2003 by the University of British Columbia, Flintbox has been acquired by  Wellspring Worldwide in 2010 and has transformed the system into a software platform that creates a collaborative community. Flintbox claims over 10,000 registered users and 200 different organizations across six continents.

Wellspring relaunched the new Flintbox in April 2010 as a platform for developing relationships and driving collaboration in the innovation community.