Judging what is truly a world class technology discovery relies on having a crystal clear understanding of the progress of research and development around the world. Knowing about what is being discovered through R&D and innovation is becoming increasingly complex with many more countries making substantial investments in research, publication and patenting as a means of leveraging themselves up the economic performance curve.

How can we establish sound technology roadmaps unless we can identify all the influential research and innovation activities that are likely to impact the roadmap domain in the future?

Technology Heat Map

Fortunately, smart software, cheap storage and fast processors have prepared the way for computer analytics and visualisation to make a major contribution to how we can understand the evolution of technology and innovation development in a field.

Often using the analysis of key word co-occurrence the ‘pattern recognition’ software is able to group together data from documents that describe similar subject matter.

The yellow dots indicate the location of hot research areas. The numbers next to the yellow dots are the hot research areas’ ID numbers. Gradations on the map correspond to the density of core papers. Warm colours represent greater concentrations of core papers, with colours becoming cooler as the density of core papers decreases.

Databases containing information from science and engineering journals and patent information can be used as the raw information that generates clear visualisations of knowledge in core domains versus that which more peripheral. Once mapped, the software enables the analyst to interrogate the documents grouped into similar domains thus enabling a ready appreciation to be gained of the state of the art on a world wide basis.

As observed in a recent publication by the OECD:

Increasingly, innovations are achieved through the convergence of scientific fields and technologies. The interaction of research disciplines may also lead to new research areas. For example, “nanoscience” research has arisen from the interaction of physics and chemistry and is interdisciplinary in character. “Nanoscience” is also somewhat attracted to the life sciences, both directly and indirectly, as measured by co-citation links. While interactions between nanoscience and life sciences are not yet strong enough to establish a research domain, the space between them may become the ground for a new area, e.g. bio-nanoscience.

Knowledge creation and flows in cutting-edge research are transmitted through the exchange of information among researchers. Citation of scientific papers is one source of knowledge flows. Analysis of citations and the identification of core papers – those that play a central role in research areas – make it possible to examine research areas and the relations among them. Research areas are identified here via a two-stage clustering of the top 1% of highly cited research papers by using “co-citation” analysis. Co-citation involves a set of papers that is cited simultaneously in other papers. “Hot” research areas are characterised by a high level of citation activity.

While the above heat map supplies information about particular disciplines globally it is entirely possible to generate important insights on a market or industry basis.

Using heat maps to inform technology roadmapping projects about areas of declining or emerging importance is set to significantly impact how technology roadmapping is conducted.

It will not replace human interaction or the role of ‘expertise’ in helping to define areas of critical importance but it will provide an evidence base to enhance quality and provide managers with greater confidence that their investment decisions and ‘technology bets’ have an enhanced probability of winning through.

Source: Saka, A., M. Igami and T. Kuwahara (2010), based on tabulations from Thomson Reuters’ “Essential Science Indicators”.  Measuring Innovation: A New Perspective © OECD 2010